Ukraine's bold incursion into Russia has grave implications for the war

Surprise move a big blow to Putin, may lead Western backers to take more risks

- Jonathan Eyal

It is an astonishing development: Instead of swiftly defeating Ukraine - as most military analysts predicted when Russia invaded its neighbour more than two years ago Russian troops are now scrambling to regain possession of their national territory.

In just a few days, the Ukrainians have taken control of more than 400 sq km of Russian land, a feat that Russian forces never achieved on Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine's triumph is unlikely to last long; sooner rather than later, Russia's much larger military is likely to prevail and the Ukrainians will be forced to withdraw.

According to media reports, Moscow on Aug 10 launched a "counter-terror operation" in three border regions adjoining Ukraine to halt the offensive.

Still, the Ukrainians have succeeded in discrediting Russian President Vladimir Putin's claim that he is winning the war against Ukraine.

More importantly, by invading Russian territory, the Ukrainians have bypassed the advice of their Western backers, who were adamantly opposed to such incursions.

And this will have significant implications for the future conduct of the war.

In launching their operation, Ukrainian troops have demonstrated impressive new capabilities.

They managed to assemble mechanised units totalling more than a thousand men undetected and took the Russians by surprise.

That is a significant feat in today's battlefield, where the availability of drones and other electronic devices ensures that any move is quickly detected.

Yet, right under the noses of the Russians, the Ukrainians assembled numerous armoured vehicles, mine clearance equipment and swarms of kamikaze drones, which they threw into battle.

They also conducted intensive reconnaissance beforehand and found out the communication frequencies of the Russian border units; these were scrambled with electronic warfare.