Timor-Leste will take foreign policy cues primarily from Jakarta

Timor-Leste doesn't produce goods that are in demand in the region, and what it does produce, including coffee, is more expensive than in Asean.

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FROM B1 doesn't produce goods that are in demand in the region, and what it does produce, including coffee, is more expensive than in Asean.

The immediate economic fate of the country, heavily dependent on oil revenues, hinges on the development of an offshore gas field called Greater Sunrise, which has been stuck in a quagmire due to protracted negotiations involving Australia's Woodside Energy and Japan's Osaka Gas—little to do with Asean.

"While Timor-Leste may benefit economically from full Asean membership, it isn't a game changer," said Mr Parker Novak, a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Indo-Pacific Security Initiative who closely tracks developments in Timor-Leste. "Greater access to the Asean free trade area will certainly help, but the country's economic future ultimately hinges on the successful development of the Greater Sunrise gas field and genuine economic diversification, both of which remain uncertain."

Both analysts concurred on one point: any tangible benefits would likely emerge on the geopolitical front. Having a seat at the table—especially in Asean's dealings with major powers through forums like the East Asia Summit—offers clear advantages. Those benefits will deepen as Timor-Leste's technocrats become more versed in Asean's ways and learn to navigate its intricacies in pursuit of national interests.