Thai-Cambodian clashes expose limits of ASEAN’s conflict management tools

News analysis

- Hariz Baharudin

The collapse of the Thai-Cambodian ceasefire has piled fresh pressure on ASEAN as it prepares for a chairmanship transition in 2026.

The latest clashes between the two neighbours underscore how limited ASEAN’s conflict management tools are when two member states slide into confrontation, said Ms Joanne Lin, a senior fellow and coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute.

“The grouping’s core norms of noninterference, consensus and quiet diplomacy were designed to promote confidence and trust building, not to intervene directly in bilateral or internal conflicts,” she told The Sunday Times.

Fighting between Thailand and Cambodia resumed on Dec 8 in the most serious flareup since a five-day battle in July, forcing more than half a million people on both sides of the border to flee their homes amid artillery exchanges, air strikes and heavy clashes.

Dozens of people have been killed in the renewed hostilities, including soldiers and civilians, officials said.

Mr Adib Zalkapli, managing director of geopolitical consultancy Viewfinder Global Affairs, said the latest escalation has shown that ASEAN has few options if members use force against one another.

The attacks, he noted, have exposed the limits of the group’s influence when political leaders believe that “aggression against a neighbour or an act of war will yield domestic political gains”.

“ASEAN or the member states do not have the means to impose financial consequences on countries that start a war,’ he said.

The fresh attacks have also dashed hopes that the truce mediated in July by ASEAN chair and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and later reinforced by a peace accord signed in October before US President Donald Trump, would hold.

AWKWARD TIMING

The escalation comes at a delicate moment for ASEAN, with the chairmanship gavel passing from Malaysia to the Philippines.