S'pore's key exports set to top official 2025 forecast, say analysts

They cite November's Il.6% gain, but caution that growth could moderate in 2026

- Sue-Ann Tan

Analysts said Singapore's key exports are set to exceed official estimates in 2025, though their growth could moderate in 2026 from the lagged impacts of US tariffs and a slowing artificial intelligence-driven tech cycle.

This is after non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) rose 11.6 per cent in November, driven mainly by volatile pharmaceutical shipments and electronic products like semiconductors and personal computers.

November's performance was down from a revised 21.7 per cent expansion in October, but still exceeded the 6.8 per cent rise forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg poll.

"Singapore's exports performed better than feared in 2025," said DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng. "This was due to the staggered roll-out of US tariffs over the course of the year, while these trade restrictions turned out to be not as blanket and burdensome than initially feared."

For the first 11 months of 2025, Nodx rose 4.8 per cent, Enterprise Singapore said on Dec 17.

The trade agency in November narrowed its 2025 full-year growth forecast for Nodx to around 2.5 per cent, from its previous forecast range of 1 to 3 per cent. It also forecast that the growth in key exports would moderate in 2026 to 0 to 2 per cent as tariff impact materialises and front-loading eases.

Mr Chua said: "In 2026, we expect Singapore's export momentum to be restrained in tandem with a weaker global trade cycle."