Risks for Russia and eye on Israel's moves

One other geopolitical uncertainty haunts South-east Asia in 2025: How the two hot wars will pan out.

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Prolonged conflict could squeeze prices of food, energy and critical commodities, countering efforts to bring down inflation and depressing growth prospects.

Developments in the European theatre will be determined by how Russia acts. 2025 could present one of the biggest gambles in the career of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose actions will weigh heavily on Europe.

At first, Russia's strategic prospects look better than at any time since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Ukrainians are slowly retreating: A year ago, around 14 per cent of their territory was under Russian control; it is now at 20 per cent. The Europeans remain pledged to help Ukraine but are increasingly exhausted by the costs this commitment entails. Trump is determined to avoid American entanglement in an endless war. So Mr Putin may be tempted to push on, hoping to achieve the total victory over Ukraine that has eluded him for almost three years.

Yet, doing so also carries enormous risks for Russia. Trump wants to stop the war in Ukraine without being accused of presiding over a US capitulation similar to that suffered by the Americans in Afghanistan. He will insist on concessions from Russia in return for a ceasefire in Ukraine. If Russia refuses to compromise, Trump could well decide to continue arming the Ukrainians.