Rise in North Korean elites defecting seen as sign of crisis

Dim prospect of reunification under Kim's regime possible push for defections: Expert

- Wendy Teo

South Korea Correspondent SEOUL A high number of defections by North Korean elites in 2023, along with two audacious escapes in the past two weeks, are a sign of a major crisis within the country, say analysts.

There were 10 defections to the South by elites such as diplomats and overseas students, based on figures released this week by South Korea's unification ministry.

While no specific figures for previous elite defections to the South were given, an official told local media that the rise in such escapes was likely triggered by the postpandemic re-opening of North Korean borders in August 2023.

"North Korean diplomats, other officials and students based overseas were told to return last year as the pandemic situation entered a new phase," an official said.

"Many must have found it unacceptable after experiencing what it was like to live in the free world, knowing that the economic situation worsened, and internal controls strengthened in North Korea." Before the pandemic, the South received some 1,000 defectors annually. The numbers dwindled to just over 60 in 2021 and 2022, but rose to 196 in 2023 when border controls started to ease. In the first half of 2024, more than 100 defectors have gone to the South, a number that analysts predict will continue to rise.

As recently as Aug 20, a North Korean soldier successfully crossed into South Korea via the eastern section of the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ).

It was the second defection in 12 days, after a North Korean civilian crossed the western maritime border near Incheon city on foot during low tide on Aug 8.

Such direct North-to-South defections are rare, given that the 248km-long and 4km-wide DMZ is among the most heavily armed borders in the world.