Regime change in Tehran may not deliver the results Israel hopes for

Any new government unlikely to be friendly to the country that is currently bombing it

- Jonathan Eyal

LONDON - Israel has many military plans for Iran, ranging from the destruction of the country's nuclear programme to the elimination of Tehran's missile capabilities.

Yet since unleashing a war against Iran on June 13, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear about his key political objective: Nothing less than the wholesale removal of Iran's clerical government.

Mr Netanyahu also likes to claim that regime change in Iran is a relatively easy endeavour, and will occur almost naturally should the Iranian military be defeated.

The government in Tehran, the Israeli leader told America's Fox News soon after the start of the war, is "very weak".

He added that, given the opportunity, "80 per cent of the people (of Iran) would throw these theological thugs out".

However, despite the very major setbacks the Iranian military has suffered at the hands of Israel, the Jewish state's own intelligence services admit there is no evidence that the regime ruling the Islamic Republic is tottering on the brink of collapse.

"There are currently no indications that the central government in Tehran is losing control," three senior Israeli military officials, who insisted on anonymity, were quoted as saying on June 20 by The Jerusalem Post, one of Israel's top daily newspapers. "Quite the opposite. The Iranian regime appears to be tightening its grip."

Assessments by most Western intelligence agencies support the conclusion of Israel's military experts.

Still, these are early days, and the Iranian regime is facing its biggest challenge since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979.

A US military intervention — something that remains a very distinct possibility — may well tip the balance against Iran's current rulers, although nobody can either predict or even identify any likely successor.