Modi's BJP on track for historic third term, but loses its majority

Underwhelming win means Indian PM faces the prospect of a coalition govt

- Rohini Mohan and Debarshi Dasgupta

India’s ruling alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to win a historic third consecutive term, even as the party loses its decade-old majority in an underwhelming victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

He now faces the prospect of a coalition government, which could slow policymaking but also temper Hindu-first instincts that have heightened communal tensions.

At 10.30pm local time, the BJP had won 216 seats and was leading in 24 others out of 543 seats in the Lower House, according to India’s national election commission. This is short of the 272 seats needed to form the next government, and falls well behind the 303 seats it scored in 2019 and 282 in 2014.

“NDA will work tirelessly to make India the third-largest economy,” Mr Modi said as he addressed his supporters at the BJP’s headquarters in New Delhi, referring to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. “If the country has to develop, then we have to fight relentlessly against corruption.”

The re-election means Mr Modi is on course to become only the second Indian prime minister to win three terms after Jawaharlal Nehru, though the BJP’s narrower lead than what was suggested in exit polls means the party is likely to have fallen short of its own target of 370 seats and 400 for the NDA.

In its two previous terms, the BJP’s definitive majority had enabled the party to revoke the autonomy of Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state, enact a citizenship law that favoured non-Muslim refugees and pass a slew of laws to curb speech, online and offline.

The BJP’s tighter-than-expected lead, though, spooked India’s financial markets on June 4, sparking a sell-off in the stock market. The benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index suffered its worst loss in more than four years, ending down nearly 6 per cent, while the rupee fell the most in a year.