Inside the leaked call threatening to bring down Thai govt

Actions by Cambodia's Hun Sen likely to invite more assertive posture from Thailand

- Philip Wen

BANGKOK - It was an undignified breach of diplomatic protocol and personal confidence between world leaders that arguably has no clear precedent — at least in terms of its power to embarrass, and potentially unseat, a sitting government.

The damaging leak of her 17-minute phone conversation with Cambodian Senate president Hun Sen has left Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra clinging to a crumbling ruling coalition, her position written off as untenable by most political analysts.

Mr Hun Sen, Cambodia's former strongman leader, in recording the conversation and then disseminating the audio clip, likely had domestic political calculations at the front of his mind, analysts say.

These include bolstering the position of his son and current Prime Minister Hun Manet and, amid rising nationalist sentiment, demonstrating that his country remained uncowed in its renewed military spat along the border it shares with its larger neighbour.

But in tipping Ms Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party-led government into turmoil, unwittingly or otherwise, Mr Hun Sen's actions are likely to invite a more assertive posture from Thailand following the brief border skirmish on May 28 that saw one Cambodian soldier killed.

"The Pheu Thai government, if it does remain in power, is now boxed in when it comes to Cambodia: It can no longer afford to be seen as weak and deferential to Hun Sen and Hun Manet," said Mr Ken Lohatepanont, a political analyst and doctoral candidate at the University of Michigan.

"I would expect that the military will now have greater latitude to pursue its desired course of action in the future," he added.