How Biden pushed Israel to calibrate its strikes on Iran

WASHINGTON - Hours after Iranian missiles rained down on Israel on Oct 1, US President Joe Biden's administration sent an urgent message to Israel: Take a breath.

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Israel, Washington argued, owned the clock and had time to decide on how to best respond to an Iranian strike that the United States assessed could have killed thousands if Israel, with US military support, had not been able to thwart the attack from its long-time foe.

Such a massive Iranian attack had the potential to trigger a sharp, rapid Israeli response that, weeks before the US presidential election, could push the Middle East closer to an all-out regional conflagration, officials feared.

This account from current and former US officials explains how the US sought to influence Israel during the more than three weeks before it finally retaliated on Oct 26 with air strikes that were far more tailored towards military targets.

They destroyed key Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities, weakening Iran's military. But, importantly, they avoided Iran's sensitive nuclear sites and energy infrastructure, meeting Mr. Biden's two top demands.

"US pressure was critically important," said Mr. Jonathan Panikoff, a former US national intelligence officer for the Middle East.

"Israeli decision-making would have been far different had the Biden administration not taken measures to push Israel not to strike nuclear or energy sites."

The first move by Mr. Biden's administration was to acknowledge that Iran would have to pay for the Oct 1 attack, officials say.

"In the hours after that attack, we promised serious consequences for Iran," according to one senior Biden administration official.

But what would be a proportional response that could deter another Iranian attack?