Geopolitics • Maduro's capture signals that rules-based order may be at risk

Rules continue to exist, but their application appears increasingly selective and contingent. For small and middle powers, this evolution is especially consequential. A rules-based order offered protection through predictability; a power-based environment demands resilience through adaptability.

- Tan Kok Heng

For decades, the global system has been described as “rules-based” — anchored in sovereignty, multilateral institutions and agreed norms of behaviour. While imperfect, this framework provided a measure of predictability, restraint and a shared language for managing disputes.

Recent events — including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States — have brought this underlying shift into sharper focus.