For Trump, the hottest property on earth lies in the Arctic

A potential US-Russia deal shows the region's rare earths and vast energy reserves are turning it into the next big geopolitical prize.

- Ravi Velloor

The big geopolitical question is where a US-Russia deal on the Arctic would leave China, says the writer. And for Singapore, a global maritime hub, the stakes are high. Any diversion of Asia-Europe traffic away from the Strait of Malacca would be deeply consequential.

(PHOTO: AFP)

Over the past months, top US and Russian officials reportedly held a series of hush-hush meetings.

The two sides have apparently agreed that in exchange for peace in Ukraine, American companies would get exclusive rights to energy, raw materials and strategic metals across Russia and in the Arctic.

The report seems credible enough, even if the leaks about the deal taking shape may have come from European states which worry that the US is preparing to sell out Ukraine leaving Europe to face an emboldened President Vladimir Putin.

And it follows news earlier this year that the American oil giant Exxon Mobil and Russia's state energy company Rosneft discussed Exxon's return to the Sakhalin gas project in a far eastern region close to Siberia, pending government permission on both sides.

There is every likelihood that the permission may come. Mr Donald Trump's foreign policy approach, to put it simplistically, has always been "make dough, not war". Moscow has long recognised this, and seems to be dangling inducements. Available accounts suggest Mr Trump has taken the bait.

But any potential deal on the Arctic sits uneasily with America's Nato allies. Rather than acting as Europe's steadfast ally, the US is increasingly recasting itself as a neutral mediator between Russia and Western Europe.