Europe suddenly more vulnerable to expansionist Russia

Widening gap in US-EU ties an opportunity for Putin to extend sphere of influence

- Josh Holder, Lara Jakes and Bill Marsh

For years, the threat of a Russia intent on expansion has loomed over much of Europe.

It is not just the war in Ukraine. Moscow has also stationed military forces in friendly countries and fanned the flames of destabilising political movements across the continent.

Now, as the Trump administration strikes a conciliatory tone towards Russia and pulls away from some of America's oldest allies, European leaders who long enjoyed the backing of the powerful US military sense an extraordinary moment of vulnerability.

For nearly 80 years, the US has been the defensive and financial cornerstone of democratic security pacts created after World War II, in large part to keep the Soviet Union from marching across Europe.

And even now, more than 80,000 US troops are deployed in Europe, some in a show of force right on Russia's doorstep.

But with a widening chasm in the transatlantic relationship, the Russia that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union has been given a big opportunity.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that his interests do not stop at Ukraine.

Experts say he envisions a Soviet-style sphere of influence extending deep into Europe.

It is reminiscent of the Cold War, when Germany was split between Russia and the West, and about half a dozen countries were pulled behind the Iron Curtain.

"No state has upended the international order more in this century than Russia," Mr Jintro Pauly, a policy adviser for the Munich Security Conference, wrote in an analysis published in February at the forum's annual meeting in Germany.

"It has structurally destabilised its neighbourhood and violated its neighbours' sovereignty."

A MORE MILITARISED EUROPE Even if President Putin wins a favourable peace deal in Ukraine, ending up with more Ukrainian territory than Russia initially seized in 2014, analysts say he would be ill-advised to test Nato's borders.