Countries' internal dysfunction may dilute collective gains

They are likely to be amplified in what promises to be a tougher, harder-to-predict 2026.

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Internal dysfunction naturally invites a question from counterparties: if you cannot solve your domestic problems — or at the very least appear united on issues that matter - why should we take you seriously?

And these counterparties are going to be increasingly difficult to deal with. There is growing acceptance that, as hard as it was managing Mr Trump’s eccentricities this year, things could get trickier as his Maga base splits and factions contest for primacy in a midterm election year.