Asian nations should worry as Trump tariffs strike at the 'Dirty 15'

How the US decides who gets on the hit list is a matter of great uncertainty. Tariffs alone are not the sole determinant.

- Ravi Velloor

In Ernest Hemingway's novel The Sun Also Rises, which captures the existential disillusionment of the Lost Generation, hard-drinking war veteran Mike Campbell responds to a question about how he got into the financial mess he was in: "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

You could say that's pretty much how the world got into the situation it will face this week, when the threatened round of Trump tariffs are announced.

On April 1, US President Donald Trump formally received a bunch of reports from his trade department listing the economies that offer the most restrictive access to American goods.

Starting on April 2—effectively, April 3 for most of us in Asia—he will act on those reports, with what he calls "reciprocal tariffs".

One of the big issues that will come clear that day is whether there will be individualized tariff rates for trading partners, as Mr. Trump has seemed to suggest recently, or an across-the-board tariff that would affect most of the countries that trade with the US.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the announcement from the Rose Garden would feature "country-based" tariffs.

Either way, the American market as we know it will change forever. It marks the latest and most significant milestone on a journey of increasing strains on the globalization and free trade philosophy that once underpinned the world economy.

Little by little, though, the tensions and resentments have built up, the signs of which have been in evidence in recent years.

The growing opposition in America to the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement, which preceded Mr. Trump's binning it in 2017, was one harbinger.

Now, the "suddenly" moment is here and Mr. Trump, in his second term, has framed it in epochal terms: Liberation Day.

THE HIT LIST