Six rules to navigate new abnormal

In Hong Kong for the Asia Global Institute forum on Navigating the Tariff War, the consensus was that no one is immune to structural uncertainty where everything is happening all at once, with no one knowing what exactly comes next.

- ANDREW SHENG

Navigation is about planning and executing a journey, but you need maps, compasses and points of reference to know where you are and where you are going. Journeys across time and space need sound navigation, especially in troubled waters. Sailing is all about teamwork, but in today’s nano-speed changes, getting anything done is like repairing an airplane mid-flight. Any mistake could end up in a crash.

Some fundamental trends may guide us on the rules to navigate these uncertainties.

First, the US-China rivalry that prompted the tariff war is a long-term trend that will not disappear soon. We all must be prepared for the weaponization of everything in this rivalry - from trade, money, talent and chips to technology. Assuming that the Big Powers are sensible enough to avoid Mutually Assured Destruction from nuclear war, we can assume that all kinds of proxy wars or more conventional warfare will be experimented with in the current march to folly.