Six rules for navigating new Abnormal

In Hong Kong for the Asia Global Institute forum on Navigating the Tariff War, the consensus was that no one is immune to structural uncertainty where everything is happening all at once, with no-one knowing what exactly comes next.

- ANDREW SHENG

Navigation is about planning and executing a journey, but you need maps, compasses and points of reference to know where you are and where you are going. Journeys across time and space need sound navigation, especially in troubled waters. Sailing is all about teamwork, but in today’s nano-speed changes, getting anything done is like repairing an airplane in mid flight. Any mistake could end up in a crash.

Some fundamental trends may guide us on the rules to navigate these uncertainties.

First, the US-China rivalry which prompted the tariff war is along-term trend that will not disappear soon. We all must be prepared for the weaponization of everything in this rivalry, from trade, money, talent, chips and technology. Assuming that the Big Powers are sensible enough toavoid Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) from nuclear war, we can assume that all kinds of proxy wars or more conventional warfare will be experimented with in the current march to folly.

Second, consultants use the acronyms PEST (political, economic, social and technology) to assess the operating context and operating environment. They also use SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) toevaluate preparedness for competition. Former US defense secretary Dick Cheney famously introduced his Unknown Unknowns matrix. What you and I know are Known Knowns. What mankind knows, but I do not knowis an Unknown Known, meaning I can search and find such existing knowledge. The Known Unknowns are risks that can be anticipated.