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Ending a war

The Statesman

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December 14, 2024

Donald Trump's election victory and his vow to swiftly end the Ukraine-Russia war present both an ambitious promise and a diplomatic quandary.

The appointment of Keith Kellogg as special envoy for the conflict underscores the gravity of this commitment. However, the lack of detailed strategies raises questions about the feasibility of this bold agenda. Mr. Kellogg's proposals hint at a pragmatic, albeit contentious, approach. His framework prioritizes a ceasefire and negotiated settlement, leveraging US aid to compel Ukraine to participate in talks while holding Moscow accountable for any reluctance. The suggestion to defer Ukraine's NATO membership is particularly striking, as it balances between appeasing Russian concerns and maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty. While such a stance may entice Moscow to the negotiating table, it risks alienating Kyiv, whose aspirations for NATO integration are deeply tied to its security strategy. This balancing act highlights a broader challenge: the divergent interests of the parties involved. Ukraine seeks robust security guarantees, while Russia desires concessions on NATO expansion and a reprieve from international sanctions. Any negotiated settlement will require not only resolving these issues but also addressing the long-term security architecture of eastern Europe. Achieving this without undermining Ukraine's independence or emboldening Russian aggression is a delicate tight-rope act. For Mr. Trump, the stakes are high. His administration's success in resolving this conflict would not only reinforce his image as a decisive leader but also redefine American influence on the global stage. However, the promise to end the war "on day one" risks oversimplifying a deeply entrenched conflict. Wars driven by historical grievances and territorial ambitions rarely yield to quick fixes, and the expectation of immediate results could backfire if progress proves slow. The recent meeting between Mr. Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky in Paris, brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron, has inje

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