Stalwart

The popular viewpoint in Bangladesh is that the diverse economic, trade, transit and security arrangements between Hasina and Indian leaders have been to India's benefit with little value to Bangladesh. Border killings of Bangladeshis are referenced, and the absence of river-sharing agreements on Teesta and Feni. With the major Ganga Waters Treaty due to expire in 2026, as matters stand, a new agreement would be extremely problematic

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Bangladeshis since independence are split between those who trust in the solidarity of the Muslim ummah, for whom the break with the Hindu majority in 1947 was more significant than liberation from Pakistan in 1971, and liberal Bengalis who believe their identity with the spiritual, linguistic and cultural ties of West Bengal and India are more important than faith.

Eventually the latter will reassert themselves and a revived Awami League, by that or another name under new leadership, will play a role in this, but as after any revolution, this process will take time until stability and political process reassert themselves. Meanwhile the question is how Indian policy recalibrates itself.

A war of words between Bangladesh and India started soon after Hasina's departure and threatens to spiral out of control following protests and counter-protests over ill-treatment of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh when the Citizenship Amendment Act (2019) has come back to bite India.

The latest exchanges were about the arrest of a Hindu monk, which inspired protests in India from Hindu organisations and politicians, and the vandalism of the Bangladesh consulate premises in Agartala although Iskcon follower Chinmoy Das, like 19th century Don Pacifico, is an unlikely rallying point for Hindu nationalists. Crimes against Hindus are endemic with any political upheaval in Bangladesh, religion being a flimsy cover for property-grabbing by the Muslim majority.

India seems to have assumed from the outset that the incoming Yunus authority would be hostile, and Bangladesh that India would be unsympathetic. A flurry of rhetoric and misinformation emanated from both sides.