Pakistan may have lost its shine for China

How should Pakistan choose between the US and China?

- KHURRAM HUSAIN

So far, a choice has not been foisted upon the country, but the time is coming when it will be. Before that time arrives, it is a good idea to devote some structured thinking to the matter and be prepared to act.

Not too long ago, a piece of advice was offered by Hina Rabbani Khar, one-time minister of state for finance and foreign minister of the country and an otherwise very smart individual whose words deserve to be taken seriously. In an internal memo that was leaked in April 2023, she cautioned against trying to appease the West and underlined the importance of maintaining the "real strategic" tie-up with China, despite mounting Western pressure. In a separate interview, Khawaja Asif echoed much the same thinking, emphasizing the difficulty Pakistan faces in undertaking a rupture either way—with the US or with China.

But the time is drawing near when not making a choice will become harder and harder and it becomes necessary to make one. The imperatives driving the American trade war against China are powerful, and rooted in the emergence of China as a great power over the past quarter of a century, a fact that is not going to change any time soon regardless of what trade measures the Trump administration takes. The current round of the trade war may possibly settle down a bit, following an agreement between China and America.

But the pause will be temporary before frictions flare up once again, because the underlying dynamic of a growing China and stalling America will still be there.