Policy uncertainty eases sharply, signalling possible turning point for SA’s economy

SOUTH Africa may be heading into 2026 with renewed momentum after the North-West University (NWU) Business School's Policy Uncertainty Index (PUI) showed a significant improvement in the final quarter of 2025.

- YOGASHEN PILLAY

The index, released on Tuesday, eased to 64.9 from its record high of 81.0 in the third quarter, indicating a notable reduction in policy-related risks even though uncertainty remains above the neutral baseline of 50.

Professor Raymond Parsons, economist at the NWU Business School, said the latest results suggest that “positive factors over the past three months have outweighed the negative ones,’ allowing the economy to enter 2026 “on a note of cautious optimism”

Parsons emphasised that the global environment remains complex but generally supportive of growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects worldwide economic expansion of 3.2% in 2026, although heightened uncertainty is increasingly seen as a permanent feature of the global landscape.