Navigating US trade hostilities: a strategic deal for South African agriculture

THESE are tumultuous times. Global geopolitics has sharply turned towards isolationism, protectionism, and trans-actional diplomacy. Under the Trump administration’s perceived leadership in the US, the world is witnessing the resurgence of trade wars and punitive tariff increases, something affecting South Africa as it finds itself increasingly at the crossroads of this geopolitical chessboard, especially as it pushes ahead with long-overdue reforms in land redistribution and agricultural transformation.

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The renewed economic nationalism from Washington is unsettling for South Africa - a key player on the African continent and a country with a complex yet critical trade relationship with the US. This shift has immediate and far-reaching consequences. Agriculture, in particular, stands vulnerable. The sector which had begun to reap modest but important benefits from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), now faces the potential of punitive measures that could trump years of progress, should South Africa be excluded from Agoa or face retaliatory tariffs.

However, a crisis often presents an opportunity, rather than inciting defensively to the changing winds in Washington, South Africa must now adopt a bold, strategic posture. In the spirit of the old adage: “Presumptive Trump’s own manifesto on deal-making.”

South Africa must prepare an alter-native agricultural deal that aligns with US interests while safeguarding its sov-ereignty and defensible, changing agenda.

Understanding the Trump Doc-trine: Transaction over tradition

To propose a viable alternative, it is important to first understand the logic of the new-era trade policy.

It is not rooted in long-term multi-lateralism but in short-term, bilateral, interest-based bargaining. Transactional-ism is transactional; not transforma-tional. Loyalty is secondary to revenue. Therefore, according to shared demo-cratic values or historical partnerships will not suffice.