Endless

Today fuel prices surge.

- ALEX MAGNO

Every Filipino will feel the pain this brings.

The past few days, every cab driver I rode with has become conversant on global affairs. They are tracking events in the Middle East and wondering when the war there will end. They understand that the longer the fighting continues, the greater the pain the rest of the world will bear.

I share their hopes that the war will be brief and the pain short-lived. But those hopes could be unfounded. This conflict will likely carry on longer and the space for diplomacy has become smaller after the US entered the fray by bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran, although militarily weakened by Israeli attacks the past week, will surely retaliate. The indications are that the Iranians will choke the Strait of Hormuz and possibly strike at US bases in the vicinity. They could activate their networks to mount cyberattacks directed principally at US targets. The Iranian missile force appears to have been underestimated as Tehran sustains its bombardment of Israel.

An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the nightmare scenario for the global economy. At least a fifth of global oil supplies transits through this narrow waterway. This will produce supply problems and cause speculative pricing for a crucial commodity.

Iran could attempt to choke sea traffic at Hormuz by unleashing the hundreds of missile-capable boats upon commercial shipping. This will draw US naval forces into direct engagement in the effort to protect shipping. Apart from the two carrier strike forces deployed by the US, the UK has also deployed warships to the area.