Bleaker

The world's economic outlook just got bleaker. Numbers show that the US economy contracted by 0.3 percent through the first quarter of this year.

- ALEX MAGNO

When the US economy shrinks, it drags down the rest of the global economy.

Days before, a government report indicated that American consumer confidence declined significantly. There is growing pessimism among American consumers. Pessimism is normally a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Shipping data likewise indicate a rapid decline in trade. The port of Los Angeles, where most deliveries from Asian exporters enter, is nearly idle. Industry analysts say that scarcely filled ships are returning to the US. The decline in trade volumes should be visible in emptied supermarket shelves in a few weeks.

It is nearly certain that the US economy will enter into at least a technical recession at the end of the second quarter. The first quarter numbers do not yet capture the chaos and the uncertainty inflicted by Trump's whimsical tariffs the day after April Fool's Day.

More concerning, the first quarter GDP report may be understated. Economic activity during this period was boosted by massive stockpiling of inventory by US importers in anticipation of a trade war. Stockpiling by wholesalers was matched by frantic buying by consumers hurrying to beat higher prices due to tariff impositions. The inventory buildup reflects as investments in calculating the GDP.

Even more concerning, the gap between reality and economic fantasy among American leaders grows by the day.

The day before the damaging GDP numbers were released, Trump bamboozled Jeff Bezos over Amazon's plan to indicate the exact impact of tariffs on whatever they sell. Trump continues to tell his people that the exporting countries will pay for the tariffs he unilaterally imposed.