Analysts expect rise in December inflation

But full-year average to settle within target

- KEISHA TA-ASAN

UnionBank chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion said inflation likely rose to 2.6 percent in December, from 2.5 percent in November, the highest in four months or since the 3.3 percent in August.

"The slight uptick in December inflation may have come from seasonal demand largely from the broad food items, particularly Noche Buena food stuff, that would historically have cyclical upticks," Asuncion said.

Despite the increase, Asuncion sees average inflation falling to 3.2 percent in 2024, matching the full-year projection of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). If realized, this would be much lower than the six percent average in 2023.

"Average inflation for 2024 is at the midpoint of the BSP's inflation target and we expect 2025 inflation to be slower at three percent at this point. Overall, this may mean the continuation of the BSP easing cycle in 2025," Asuncion said.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the December inflation data tomorrow, Jan. 7.