The solution to the problem of small boats? Return agreements and legal asylum

This political and moral puzzle has no easy answer.

- Martha Gill

We could start by opening our doors to the neediest people from refugee camps A re sunny skies really to blame for the persistent number of small boats crossing the Channel? That was the contention of the Home Office this week, which drew a link between balmy days and the near 50% rise in arrivals since this time last year.

Critics have accused the government of "blaming the weather", pointing out that there has also been a significant increase in people making the journey even when conditions are not ideal. An average of 60 people a day now attempt the journey on "low viability" days, up from three in 2020.

But this misses an even sharper critique. It is in fact true that an incidental rise in "good sailing days" has made a huge difference in the numbers of small vessels alighting on our shores. And that gets to the root of the problem.

Keir Starmer has made a promise to deal with a situation over which he has extremely minimal control. The weather is just the start of it.

His promise is to "smash the gangs" behind the smuggling. But this will, of course, be interpreted as a commitment to bringing down numbers of arrivals. It is unlikely to work. When it comes to these gangs, there are few structures you can easily "smash".

They are disparate, decentralised, fluid, shifting and opportunistic.

The most senior people operate internationally, often in places far beyond British and EU jurisdiction.

And their juniors are quickly trained and expendable: low-level smugglers employed to collect money and chivvy people on to a vessel are easily replaced. Some "smugglers" are in fact migrants themselves, who may agree to steer a dinghy in exchange for free passage. Meanwhile, as time goes on, they become better resourced, more professional and better at evading authorities. It takes a lot of resources to find, arrest and investigate smugglers. This is an arms race we are unlikely to win.