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Reeves's taxing problems can be fixed by a customs union return

The Observer

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July 20, 2025

After that triumphant Test match at Lord's, I treated myself to a taxi home. Being an old-fashioned journalist, I asked the driver how business was. “Not good,” he said. “Most of my clients are rich and a lot are leaving London.”

- William Keegan

“Fear of a wealth tax?” I asked.

“No, guv. Crime.”

I raise this because such concern coincides with the burgeoning debate about taxation and, let's face it, the need to do something about the way our public services seem to be crumbling. They need to be financed to help the police to catch criminals, for instance.

I was particularly struck by the contrast in recent pronouncements on taxation from two leading experts: Richard Hughes, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and Paul Johnson, who is retiring after a long stint as director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Both have been warning for some time about the strains on the public sector and the implication that taxes will have to rise, notwithstanding Rachel Reeves's rash commitments to eschew increases in income tax, VAT and national insurance contributions. Hughes pointedly warned the chancellor that higher and higher taxes are bad for growth - the petard to which Reeves has hitched her reputation.

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