'Guerillas are everywhere': Islamists fix sights on being Somalia's new kings

While the world has been focused on Gaza and Ukraine, al-Shabaab has quietly been seizing much of the country. Following the example of terrorist groups elsewhere, could it soon end up governing it? Jack Denton reports from Awdheegle

- Jack Denton reports from Awdheegle

The Somali government's grip on power slips with each town the Shebelle River passes southwest of Mogadishu, its waters veering into banana plantations and the rural heartlands of al-Shabaab.

First, Sabid, a town safe enough for Turkish troops to snap selfies near the bridge they helped rebuild. Second is Bariire, where terrorist insurgents blew up two bridges and left informants lurking among the population.

The third, Awdheegle, is the last bastion of government control, 30 miles from the capital. A large swathe of the town is marred by burnt and twisted metal, remnants of the homemade bombs favoured by al-Shabaab, the militant Islamist group. If it had not detonated during construction, the weapon may have been fated for a terror attack in Mogadishu.

After months of heavy fighting, insurgents retreated from Awdheegle in early October and left it to the Somali National Army (SNA) and its allies. It is now held by about 1,000 SNA soldiers and a contingent of Ugandans, but their control is tenuous.

Within minutes of Lt Col Abdirahim Mohamed Munye reassuring The Observer that his forces have secured the town, troops and government handlers rush through Awdheegle to end the visit. The Ugandan helicopter pilots providing transport are anxious to leave, saying al-Shabaab usually start lobbing mortars when they have been on the ground this long, while angry locals have begun crowding around government officials, demanding support.

It all adds to a sense of chaos on a 360-degree frontline where insurgents could lie just a 100 metres out of town, despite the government's insistence it has control of the capital's hinterlands.

"Three hundred kilometres from Mogadishu, the whole area is secure," says Awes Hagi Yusuf, the federal government's national security adviser. "We are 100% sure that Shabaab will never seize [the capital]."