STANDING UP TO THE BULLY ON THE PLAYGROUND

Today's China is not yesterday's Soviet Union. Nor is Trump's America the sole superpower. Anyone trying to push back the clock of history will get hurt

- SUDHEENDRA KULKARNI

The global tariff 'war' unleashed by Donald Trump has shown us a stark reality about the prevailing global order. It is that nations belong to three categories—those that bully, those that are bullied, and those that refuse to be bullied. The second category has a few sub-categories—those who meekly choose to get bullied, those who are too weak to resist being bullied, and those who reckon that non-resistance is a better strategy as it would help in getting the best deal possible from the bully.

It doesn't take deep research to know which category Trump-led America and Xi Jinping-led China belong to, and which sub-category India under Narendra Modi's leadership finds itself in.

However, the recent dramatic events also show the limits to any country's power of bullying the rest of the world. Once a bully is effectively countered, he ceases to be a bully to the one resisting him—and seeks a compromise with his rival. If self-hurt were a sport, America has just won a trophy.

Trump began by announcing an across-the-board hike in tariffs on all countries—allies and others alike. Alongside came a threat: "Don't escalate. If you do, you'll be punched harder." Predictably, one country—China—ignored the threat. It increased tariffs on American exports to China to nearly match the US tariff on Chinese exports. Mayhem ensued around the world.

Within the US itself, the turmoil in stock and bond markets sent sharply disapproving signals. The who's who in America's financial leadership feared a debilitating recession. Trump's 'Liberation Day' quickly turned into a 'Nightmare Day'. All this forced him to backtrack with a 90-day pause on his decision. He lowered the tariff hike to 10 percent on all countries—except China, which was slapped with a further massive increase. China hit back. Trump again blinked by giving tariff exemptions on electronic goods, largely imported from China.