New Normal Amid a New Cold War

The effect of Donald Trump's return to the White House is being felt in capitals all over the world.

- SHANKARI SUNDARARAMAN

At the recently concluded Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the specter of a new cold war rose once again to dominate discussions. In his ASEAN chairman's statement, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim categorically asserted the return of a cold war to systemic interstate relations.

The reference does not augur well for the ASEAN, which has been trying to build resilience within while maintaining a degree of balance between the US and China. The second important aspect of this year's dialogue has been the tough stand India has placed on its recent military stand-off with Pakistan following the devastating terror attack at Pahalgam. The subsequent Indian political and military action against Pakistan has highlighted what the political leadership is calling the 'new normal', signaling that tolerance has its limits.

Both these indicated a changed environment at the Shangri-La Dialogue, especially as they implied certain defining shifts. First, the very definition of the term 'cold war' and how this period will be different from the earlier cold war. Second, the Trump administration's impact on the wider Indo-Pacific and what it expects from the region vis-à-vis the US-China rivalry. Third, the choices for ASEAN states, particularly in light of the extending US-China rivalry. And finally, how this affects the role India plays within multilateral forums and how India's definition of the new normal affects the region.