The Contested Scramble For Peace In Ukraine

Though Trump and Putin are ready to discuss peace, Zelenskyy and European leaders have a stake in extending the war. Moscow seems open to BRICS playing a role in deciding Europe's future

- M K BHADRAKUMAR

The great paradox of the conflict in Ukraine is that while a defeat is shaping up for Kyiv, the war itself is reaching an apparent stasis—so much so that a conclusive end to it can only be in a manner and with a timeline that Moscow decides.

The Trump administration is steadily decoupling, but the remnants of the 'collective West' in Europe is still bent upon continuing to inflict as much serious damage to the Russian forces on the battlefield as possible, apprehensive of a perceived Russian resurgence on the geopolitical plane regionally and internationally in the downstream.

From the Russian perspective, Donald Trump's presidency remains an enigma, susceptible to mood swings. But Trump's abhorrence of war and his enthusiasm to restore the political and diplomatic intercourse with Moscow is beyond doubt. He has ruled out Ukraine's NATO membership. And Moscow is reciprocating Trump's keenness to add a new template to his America First agenda in the nature of a hugely beneficial US-Russian economic relationship.

Some deft diplomacy is in play, as Moscow also must keep an eye on its strategic partnership with Beijing. We are indeed witnessing a remarkably dynamic period not only for Ukraine, but for European security more generally and fundamental elements of the international security architecture.

The most intractable issue—the root cause of the war—is that Ukraine is embedded in the larger question of European security. Therefore, Moscow is up-fronting a dialogue with the US across a range of issues—West Asia, energy security, the Arctic, strategic stability and so forth, to create a critical mass of mutual trust. To that end, an expeditious restoration of normal diplomatic relationship with the US becomes a pre-requisite.