MODI, CARNEY RESET TIES FROM LOSE-LOSE TOWARDS WIN-WIN

Nold maxim has it that there are years when nothing happens and then there are weeks when decades happen.

- SHANKKAR AIYAR

It’s 16 years this month since Canada and India first discussed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). In 2009, Canada was ranked 10th and India 11th on the world GDP table. India’s GDP was $1.34 trillion and Canada’s was $1.37 trillion. In 2025, Canada has a GDP of $2.23 trillion, ranked 10th, while India at $4.13 trillion is the fifth-largest economy.

There are many explanations for the squandered years—the two nations tried in fits and starts to get the treaty done. Essentially, the saga reeks of short-termism, of electoral math overwhelming rationale, of misplaced notions of liberty, and of statesmanship waylaid by sartorial symbolism. The infestation of distrust worsened as Canada accused India of ‘foreign interference’. India charged Canada of sheltering Khalistani terrorists, who were responsible for assassinating a prime minister and were openly targeting Indian diplomats. Just a year back, Canada and India expelled diplomats. It seemed the two sides had reached a point of no return.

History tells us events can define or redefine relationships. In February 2025, Donald J Trump arrived as the 47th president of the US. He makes no secret of his dislikes—and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau was one. Trudeau, trailing conservatives, stepped down for Mark J Carney. Trump also has pet likes—for one, Canada as the 51st state of the US. And then he imposed tariffs. As Trump crossed the undefended boundary, Canadians put up their elbows, resulting in a stunning victory for Carney.