KEEP MKT RETURN EXPECTATIONS LOW

EQUITY returns in India over the past 5-10 years have been good.

- PV SUBRAMANYAM

Especially for those who invested from 2020 onwards. It’s helpful to benchmark against recent performance.Over the past 6 years (March 2020-March 2026), Indian large-cap indices like the Nifty 50 delivered strong compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) of about 15-20%, while mid-caps and small-caps outperformed dramatically with CAGRs exceeding 30-40% in some segments.

For the past 10 years (2016-2026), the Nifty 50 has averaged about 13% CAGR, aligning with its long-term historical norm, but this period benefited from post-COVID recovery, low interest rates, and robust economic growth averaging 7-8% GDP annually.

However, 2025 marked a sharp slowdown, with the MSCI India Index returning only about 2.2% in USD terms, its worst relative performance in three decades compared to Asian and emerging market peers.