HOW BIHAR TIPPED THE SCALES

THE narrative surrounding the recent Bihar assembly election has been constructed in several overlapping ways. It has been interpreted as an expression of gratitude to, and trust in, a leader who is perceived to deliver on promises; as evidence of women emerging as anchors of voting decisions in poor households; and as a demonstration of how a tone of masculine arrogance can weaken emotional connect with voters.

- SAJJAN KUMAR

Across these different readings lies one clear lesson for the political class: admiration does not automatically translate into endorsement, especially among an electorate as politically attuned as Bihar’:

The verdict itself has left little ambiguity. The NDA increased its tally dramatically, from 125 seats in 2020 to an emphatic 202. By contrast, the Mahagathbandhan suffered its worst performance since 2010, finishing with just 35 seats. These headline numbers are striking enough, but the real clarity emerges when the mandate is broken down regionally. A closer look at the five principal regions of Bihar shows how differently each area responded to the two competing alliances, rewarding some strategies while punishing others. As with the rivers that mark many of their boundaries, each region flowed in a particular direction.

Take Tirhut first. Bordered by the Ganga and Gandak rivers and accounting for 78 seats, it forms the largest bloc in north Bihar. Tirhut was widely expected to witness a tight contest. This expectation stemmed from the substantial presence of one of the key Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs)—the Mallah community— whose leader, Mukesh Sahani, had crossed over to the MGB. As the VIP defector, he was projected as a deputy chief ministerial face of the MGB and expected to draw the fishers’ community towards the alliance. His arrival was also seen as a direct challenge to Nitish Kumar’s sustained cultivation of the EBC bloc since 2005.