CHINA COUNTS ITS CHICKENS AS MYANMAR VOTES

China would prefer a strong govt in Myanmar, whatever be the configuration. Hope for stability lies in a repeat of the now-familiar alternation between military and civil rule

- PRADIP PHANJOUBAM

Ț HE first phase of Myanmar's general elections-held five years after the February 2021 military coup-concluded on December 28. Two more phases are scheduled on January 11 and 25. The results, which many international organisations including the United Nations have said will be no more than a sham to legitimise the military's hold on the country's politics, will be out by February.

The coup immersed Myanmar in a violent civil war along several ethnic and political faultlines, leading many to conclude that these elections will be violence-marred, besides deepening the existing social fissures. Thankfully, there have been no reports of major election-related escalation of violence in the first phase, although it is too early to predict whether this will hold for the rest of the phases and thereafter.

These elections do appear hollow considering only 57 political parties are contesting for the two Union legislative Houses and 14 unicameral assemblies, one each for its seven states and seven regions. Numerous other parties-including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), which won a landslide victory in the 2020 election and came to power before being ousted three months later by the coup led by General Min Aung Hlaing-will not be contesting.

The NLD and several other parties refused to register with the Union Election Commission, and have thereby been dissolved. According to estimates, these parties together received 70 percent of the votes in 2020 and won 90 percent of the seats in the Union as well as regional legislatures. Moreover, in 65 of the country's 330 townships (sub-divisions), elections will not be held on security considerations.