An accurate forecast of global warming made 112 years ago

The effect of carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas (GHG), is no longer “considerable.” It is out of control; it has thrown us into a feedback loop from which there is no exit. FILE PHOTO: Reuters

- BY QUAMRUL HAIDER

An August 14, 1912 article in the New Zealand newspaper The Rodney & Ota-maeta Times contained a story about how burning coal might cause global warming by adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The story reads, "The furnaces of the world are now burning about 2,000,000,000 tons of coal a year. When this is burned, uniting with oxygen, it adds about 7,000,000,000 tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere yearly. This tends to make the air a more effective blanket for the Earth and to raise its temperature. The effect may be considerable in a few centuries."

The effect of carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas (GHG), is no longer "considerable." It is out of control; it has thrown us into a feedback loop from which there is no exit. So we won't have to wait a "few centuries" for the Earth to become a furnace. Indeed, the prediction made more than 112 years ago essentially validates the seemingly bleak future that we are staring at with trepidation.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which serves as the most dependable measure of the global community's advancement towards a secure future, experienced the most significant annual rise from 421.1 ppm in 2023 to 424.6 ppm in 2024. The record increase in 2024 was fuelled by a variety of factors, including record-high GHG emissions, diminished carbon absorption by natural sinks like tropical forests, and the release of vast quantities of carbon dioxide due to wildfires.

The annual rate of increase over the past 60 years is nearly 100 times more rapid than previous natural increases that happened at the end of the last Ice Age,