Reform and Corbyn could gain from lower voting age

Leading pollsters have suggested Labour's plan to lower the voting age to 16 could “backfire” as Reform UK and Jeremy Corbyn's new party could end up gaining the most from the policy instead.

- TARA COBHAM ALICJA HAGOPIAN

The “seismic” move announced by the government as part of a raft of measures last month would allow around 1.5 million more teenagers to cast a ballot, bringing UK-wide elections in line with Scotland and Wales by the time the country next goes to the polls, due by the summer of 2029 at the latest.

Sir Keir Starmer encouraged 16- and 17-year-olds to use their vote at the next election, with No 10 saying the prime minister would “absolutely encourage them to be as engaged as they can be in the future of their country”.

But top pollsters have warned the rewards Labour may have been hoping to reap from their plans might not come to fruition, with Nigel Farage's Reform and Mr Corbyn's party the potential real winners.

Respected pollster and Conservative peer Robert Hayward told The Independent: “I just don’t think the policy will be as beneficial as the Labour Party thought when they first proposed it. My expectation, in the multiparty political field that we have at the moment, is that the non-mainstream, non-legacy parties – such as Reform, the Green Party and Corbyn's party - will be the beneficiaries of younger people's willingness to vote away from the traditional parties.”

Martin Baxter, director at pollster Electoral Calculus, added: “It could be that Labour's plan for votes for 16- and 17-year-olds – which did look a bit like semi-naked tilting the scales in Labour's own favour - might backfire a little bit, if Reform and Corbyn attract those new voters.”

Louis O'Geran, research and communications associate at pollsters More in Common UK, agreed. “It would be a mistake to see the lower voting age as an easy win for Labour,” he said.