Poking the bear: Ukraine's attack on Russia could sink

The daring invasion of Kursk began as an unlikely triumph but keeping a firm grip on occupied land is much tougher

- MARK GALEOTTI

Ukraine took more than 300 square miles of the Kursk region in the first month of its counter-invasion of Russia, raising morale at home and challenging a growing sense in the West that stalemate was the best Kyiv could hope for. Yet as a daring incursion looks set to become an open-ended occupation, doubts are growing about its long-term wisdom.

When Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border on 6 August, Kyiv was tight-lipped about its objectives, both to keep Moscow guessing and also because it did not want to set itself up for a fall. It needed a victory for both foreign and domestic audiences. Since then, though, the goals seem to have changed – and gaps opened between the military and political leadership.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the military commander behind the daring operation, has largely highlighted the need to take pressure off the beleaguered Donbas front, where Russian forces continue to grind forwards.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, though, is increasingly talking of maintaining a buffer zone and a potential bargaining chip for eventual negotiations. Speaking to a US TV channel on Tuesday, he said that “at the moment, we need it”, and that this land could be held “indefinitely” as it was part of his still-unrevealed “victory plan”.

There is, however, a huge difference between overwhelming scattered and poorly trained conscript defence forces and using the Ukrainians’ mobility and elan to grab a piece of an underdefended border region and holding it.