PM warned Labour will be 'wiped out' without change

Sir Keir Starmer has been issued a stark warning over the direction of the government, with pollsters speculating that he could struggle to turn the corner following a devastating defeat in Labour's heartland.

- MILLIE COOKE, KATE DEVLIN

Plaid Cymru snatched the traditionally Labour seat of Caerphilly away from Sir Keir's party overnight on Thursday. It was the first time that Labour, which came third behind Reform UK, had lost an election in the former mining town in more than a century.

With many seeing this week's by-election as a bellwether for the local elections next May as well as national elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, Ipsos pollster Keiran Pedley told The Independent that it is “hard to see how Labour will turn things around”, while Professor Sir John Curtice said the result shows that the party is “in severe trouble in Wales”.

The Andy Burnham-allied pressure group Mainstream warned that Labour “will be wiped out in Wales next May without a major reset”, advising Sir Keir to “reject the hyper-factional culture [that is] determined to concentrate power at the top of the party”.

Sir Keir said he is "deeply disappointed" at the by-election, adding: "We clearly need to do much more."

But one Labour MP said there is “absolutely nothing Starmer can do to turn the political tide”, urging the prime minister to “consider his position now, not later, before the Labour Party sinks into the abyss”.

It comes amid growing concern over the direction of Sir Keir’s government, with many seeing next May’s local and national elections as a crucial test of how Labour is performing in power, and as a deadline for the prime minister to start delivering on the government's priorities.