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How Israel and US differ on Iranian nuclear programme

The Independent

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June 19, 2025

Despite having the best intelligence in the world, the two countries disagree on how close Iran is to building a bomb

- ALEX CROFT

How Israel and US differ on Iranian nuclear programme

The conflict between Israel and Iran has now entered its seventh day, and reports suggest that the US may join with Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

At least 224 people have been killed in Iran, and 24 in Israel, after the IDF launched a series of attacks on Iran's nuclear sites and its capital Tehran last Friday. Iran has not been regularly updating its death toll, but Washington-based group Human Rights Activists said that, as of yesterday, at least 585 people had been killed and more than 1,300 wounded.

Nuclear sites in Iran have also suffered significant damage, and key military personnel in Iran's Revolutionary Guard - as well as nuclear scientists and negotiators - have been killed by the Israeli military. But the pretext upon which Israel opened the conflict claims of an imminent risk that Iran will develop nuclear weapons - has been contested by Washington. US intelligence has maintained that such an outcome may be years away.

Here, The Independent looks at how two of the world's most powerful spy agencies have produced different assessments of the status of Iran's nuclear programme - and why this will form a key part of any decision made by the US to become involved in the conflict.

Israel's claims about the Iranian nuclear programme

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