Even tactical voting may not be enough to defeat Farage

There is nothing surprising about a new poll that suggests Reform UK could win an overall majority if a general election were held now - and that the Conservatives might not be far from extinction.

- JOHN CURTICE

The latest MRP poll from Electoral Calculus - using a technique that analyses a large poll to estimate what would happen in every constituency - suggests that Reform might win as many as 445 seats (an overall majority of 240), leaving the Tories with a rump of just seven MPs. Even Labour is credited with just 73 seats.

We might wonder what to make of this “explosive megapoll” (as the newspaper that commissioned it put it), which seems to suggest Nigel Farage is set for the biggest Commons majority in modern political history.

First, there is nothing unusual about its headline voting numbers. It reckons that Reform, on 33 per cent, are 14 points ahead of Labour (on 19 per cent) and 17 points ahead of the Conservatives (on 16 per cent).

These figures are only a little more favourable to Reform than the current polling average; regular polling on average puts Reform on 32 per cent, 12 points ahead of Labour (on 20 per cent) and 14 ahead of the Conservatives (on 18 per cent).