Europe at risk of new Covid wave as subvariants spread

A "swarm" of new Covid subvariants could drive a fresh wave across Europe and North America by the end of November, experts have warned.

- THOMAS KINGSLEY

Covid-19 infections have surged 14 per cent, latest figures show, as subvariants of the Omicron family show immune evasive ability, according to early data.

According to the Biozentrum research facility at the University of Basel, which has been studying the evolution of the virus since the pandemic started, there is a "collective" of subvariants mutated from the Omicron family's BA.2 and BA.5, which are showing an ability to spread rapidly.

BQ1.1, derived from BA.5 and BA.2.75.2, derived from BA.2 are among the new subvariant scientists fear could drive a "significant wave" as the colder weather persists.

"The trends we're seeing at the moment are very different from what's happened in the past," Cornelius Roemer, a computational biologist with Biozentrum, told The Independent.

"Omicron was maybe the first variant that was good at evading immunity and that's why it caused such a large wave. Now for the first time, we see many lineages, many variants emerging parallel that all have very similar mutations and that all manage to still evade immunity pretty well," he said.

Mr Roemer, who analyses Covid sequencing data from different lab databases worldwide and is part of the UK-led Pango Network that names new variants, said the current infection surge presents a new challenge for researchers because for the first time there isn't a standout variant of concern but instead a collection or "swarm" of subvariants.