A bad night for Labour but even worse for the Tories

Farage’s success was humiliating for the PM but ultimately more threatening to Kemi Badenoch, writes John Rentoul

- John Rentoul

It shouldn't make a difference to assessing Reform's performance whether it won the Runcorn by-election by six votes or lost by six, but in practice, it makes all the difference in the world.

It confirms that a government that is still new is so deeply unpopular that it cannot hold one of its safest seats. A landslide general election win that matched the giddiness of Blairphoria just 10 months ago has turned into the humiliation of defeat at the hands of Nigel Farage.

It confirms that Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff and architect of his general election victory, is right to see Farage as the main threat to the Labour government – but it also shows how ineffective Labour’s attempt to fight Reform on the issue of immigration has been.

If Reform won Runcorn by the narrowest of margins, Labour held onto the mayoralties of the West of England, Doncaster, and North Tyneside by narrow margins too – in each case being lucky to fend off Reform’s challenge. Win or lose, in each case, Reform was the threat.