Senedd poll Labour fears surge by Reform could prove precursor to general election

Playing Tom Jones and Catatonia on the decks and taking to the dancefloor wrapped in a Welsh flag, Eluned Morgan, at least, was having a good time at the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno last month.

- Bethan McKernan Wales correspondent

But, almost a year into the job as first minister of the Labour government in the Senedd, working alongside a Labour administration in Westminster, the party arguably does not have much to make a song and dance about.

For 100 years, the Welsh have been Labour’s most loyal voters and they have returned the party to government in Cardiff since devolution almost 27 years ago. But poll after poll now says Labour’s base has collapsed and the party will come third in the Senedd elections next May, after Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. In Westminster, the worry is the Welsh elections will prove a bellwether for the next general election in 2029.

The parliamentary Labour party has not learned from the “death of Scottish Labour” in the 2007 Holyrood elections in which the Scottish National party emerged as the largest party, according to the Labour and Cooperative Senedd member Lee Waters. The MS for Llanelli is standing down next year, along with more than a third of the Senedd’s 30 Labour members.