Putin visit to China: Ukraine war top of agenda as allies look to cement their relationship

Vladimir Putin will travel to China this weekend for what the Kremlin has called a "truly unprecedented" visit to his most important ally, which comes at a crunch moment in talks over Ukraine.

- Pjotr Sauer

Russian affairs reporter

During the trip, which is expected to stretch to close to a week – unusually long for the Russian president – he will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, hold talks with Xi Jinping, and attend Beijing's Victory Day parade marking 80 years since Japan's defeat in the second world war, where Putin is due to be the star guest alongside North Korea's Kim Jong-un and leaders of Iran and Cuba.

Key on the agenda, analysts say, will be for Putin and Xi to align over their positions on Ukraine amid US efforts to end the fighting.

"It is an important time for them to talk about where the war is headed and how likely it is to be stopped in the near future," said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Gabuev said Moscow wants to know whether it can expect further assistance from China and how Beijing would respond if the US were to ask it to put pressure on Russia to end the fighting.

"The two leaders need to compare notes and make sure they are on the same page. This is important because the war has become one of the main pillars of their relationship," he said.

China has been an economic lifeline for Russia during the Ukraine war and Kyiv has been increasingly outspoken about what it says is China's direct aiding of Moscow's war effort.

Bilateral trade climbed to more than $240bn last year – two-thirds higher than before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Beijing is now the leading buyer of Russian oil and coal, and is poised to surpass Europe as Moscow's main market for natural gas.

Russia's dependency on China is unlikely to go away, even if the fighting stops, said Gabuev. "Russia wants to know whether China will buy more oil and gas in the long term," he said.