Perilous outlook Tax protests will be easier to weather than a hit to growth

"Starmer the farmer harmer": the placards sported by the army of angry landowners who rolled into Westminster on Tuesday sent a clear message to the prime minister.

- Heather Stewart

By Thursday, the Treasury was hinting at a retreat, albeit a very modest one, on its plans to levy inheritance tax on larger estates, mooting a transitional regime for the oldest farmers, who may not have time to organise their affairs.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, fresh from wading into the future of EU relations, said retailers were right to warn of job losses as a result of Rachel Reeves's £25bn national insurance contributions (NICs) rise. Scores of companies had written to the chancellor to plead their case. The noisy protests and hurried government consultations conjured botched budgets of the past - George Osborne's omnishambles in 2012, with its pasty and caravan taxes; Gordon Brown's abolition of the 10p tax rate in 2007, which Alistair Darling later had to paper over.

Yet inside the Treasury, the sense is that the budget landed as well as could have been expected, given that it will raise £40bn in tax. Some opposition was inevitable, the Treasury believes, given the historic scale of the revenue-raising measures. But Labour focus groups carried out on budget day and since have suggested that while voters aren't cheering the tax rises, they are mainly relieved they won't be hit directly via their payslips.

Government strategists were struck by how positive voters were about the increase in the minimum wage - which benefits 3 million people - and plans for higher spending on the NHS. In particular, the "hero voters" they are fixated with, including Tory-to-Labour switchers they are keen to hang on to at a future general election, apparently liked what they saw.