'People hate us'

How the biggest byelection upset in years unfolded

- Rowena Mason Josh Halliday Jessica Elgot

From the outset of the Gorton and Denton byelection, Labour strategists were desperate to say the party was on course to win but its trouncing at the hands of the Greens has made this look laughable in hindsight.

Hollie Ridley, Labour’s general secretary, sent a note to No 10 at the end of January saying it was “clearly a two-horse race” with Reform UK and only 3% of voters saying they would stick with the Greens.

Later in the contest, cabinet ministers were dispatched to tell journalists things were “looking good” with the data and it was Labour’s biggest ever “get out the vote” operation to ensure victory.

This misplaced optimism was mostly designed to make the people of Gorton and Denton think voting Labour had the best chance of defeating Reform UK’s divisive candidate, Matt Goodwin. It was a strategy built when Labour felt burnt by Plaid Cymru winning a Welsh parliament byelection in Caerphilly by positioning itself as the preeminent “Stop Reform” party.

But the polling and betting markets told a different story - and reporting on the ground was also showing that voters were in no mood to give Labour a hearing.

Time and again, they cited disillusionment with the government’s performance and Labour’s decision to block the Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, from standing - even above the overarching chaos of the Peter Mandelson scandal.

At the same time, the Greens were playing a blinder. While Labour sought to portray them as “extremists” and “soft on drugs”, Zack Polanski’s party picked Hannah Spencer, a local plumber, as its candidate, whose spirited campaign appeared to send a message of hope and change.

A sign of the Green party’s confidence came just four hours after polls opened on Thursday. Journalists were given extensive details of Spencer’s victory lap on her first day as the area’s MP - including mid-afternoon karaoke and marking iftar, the breaking of the fast, at a local mosque.