Nato rearmament a real threat to carbon targets, study finds

A global military buildup poses an existential threat to climate goals, according to researchers - who say Nato's planned rearmament alone could increase greenhouse gas emissions by almost 200m tonnes a year.

- Damien Gayle

With the world embroiled in the highest number of armed conflicts since the second world war, countries have embarked on military spending sprees, collectively totalling a record $2.46tn (£1.82tn) in 2023.

For every dollar invested in new hardware there is not only a corresponding carbon cost but also an opportunity cost to potential climate action, critics say. This is on top of the huge death tolls resulting from armed conflicts.

Ellie Kinney, a researcher with the Conflict and Environment Observatory charity and a co-author of the study, shared exclusively with the Guardian, said: "There is a real concern around the way we are prioritising short-term security and sacrificing long-term security.

"Because of this kind of lack of informed approach, we're investing in hard military security now, increasing global emissions for that reason, and worsening the climate crisis further down the line."

That in turn is only likely to lead to further violence, with climate change itself increasingly seen as an indirect driver of wars. In Sudan's Darfur region, conflict was linked to competition over scarce resources after prolonged droughts and desertification. In the Arctic, receding sea ice is leading to tensions over who should control newly accessible oil, gas and critical mineral resources.