Expectation management Labour wary of Tories' claim they could lose 1,000 seats

The decision of Greg Hands, the Conservative chair , to breezily announce in a TV interview that the party expects to lose at least 1,000 seats in next month’s local elections raised a few eyebrows among his MPs

- Peter Walker , Jessica Elgot

“What did he do that for?” one bemused MP asked. “I know you always have expectations management, but this seems a bit early and a bit excessive.”

All local election results tend to be scrutinised with near-obsessive zeal by pundits, and of course by parties and MPs, but the voting across 230 English councils on 4 May feels all the more significant given it will be the first actual verdict on Rishi Sunak since he became prime minister, however filtered and diff used that verdict is.

While Labour’s national lead remains large, a slight tightening in some polls-plus government achievements such as the revised Northern Ireland protocol – has helped create the narrative that the government’s woes may be easing, and that the next general election could be tighter than expected.

But a bad result for the Conservatives on 4 May would compound renewed troubles, such as the departure of Dominic Raab, and Sunak’s electoral balloon could deflate ate all over again.

If Hands is right, and the Tories shed 1,000-plus seats, it would undoubtedly be a bad result. The last time these councils were fought was 2019, when Theresa May was at the trough of her unpopularity and weeks away from agreeing on a timetable to step down, and the party lost 1,300 councillors.

The rump of supporters who still long for a return of Boris Johnson before the next general election have always identified a number of moments of peril for Sunak.

The first that they pinned hopes on was the settling of the dispute over the Northern Ireland protocol – but despite rebellions from Johnson and the former prime minister Liz Truss, a well-organised government whipping operation saw off that threat.