Challenges for summit where red lines rule out big gains

The prime minister, Keir Starmer, is hosting the first UK-EU summit since Brexit today as the government pushes to "reset" the relationship with Britain's largest trading partner to boost the economy.

- Richard Partington

Almost a decade on from the EU referendum, and five years since Britain's formal withdrawal, there are clear economic challenges to tackle, while public disappointment with the Brexit deal negotiated by Boris Johnson's Conservatives is rising among remain and leave voters alike.

Here are five charts highlighting the economic context of the summit.

Support for closer relations

Public support for Brexit has dwindled since the 52%-48% leave vote in the 2016 referendum. Polling by YouGov in January this year found only 30% of Britons now think it was right to leave, versus 55% who say it was wrong. The majority support closer relations with Brussels.

Sixty-two per cent reckon Brexit has gone badly, including about a third of leave voters. A majority believe leaving has damaged the economy, UK trade and the cost of living.

Isolating the economic impact of Brexit can be difficult given other seismic developments, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the fragmentation of global trade. Some economists warned of catastrophe, while others predicted a renaissance for "global Britain". The reality is more nuanced. Still, evidence of economic damage is piling up.

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Treasury's independent forecaster, the UK faces a 15% slump in trade and a 4% reduction in national income over the long term.

Negative trade shock